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Turbulence In Trade And Economy Amidst A Pandemic

As the new year starts it brings hopes, opportunity, happiness and good vibes to the human life. similarly we all are accepting from 2020 but rather to became a good starting this year chooses to became a monster for human civilization. It is presumed before 2020 that this year with two twenty-twenty became a great year for whole world but it turns out to the bad luck for world and gifted us a pandemic virus covid-19 also known as corona-virus which became a bane to the human life.

What is pandemic?

According to the WHO, a pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention defines a pandemic as:
an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, usually affecting a large number of people.

On February 24, Dr Michael J Ryan, a senior WHO official, told reporters that the word pandemic comes from the Greek pandemos', which means everybody, CNN reported. Demos means the population. Pan meaning everyone. So pandemos is a concept where there's a belief that the whole world's population will likely be exposed to this infection and potentially a proportion of them fall sick, Dr Ryan said.[1]

What is coronavirus?

Coronavirus are a large group of viruses that are common among animals. In rare cases, they are what scientists call zoonotic, meaning they can be transmitted from animals to humans, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Symptoms:

Coronavirus includes

  • Respiratory disease
  • common cold.
  • runny nose,
  • cough, sore throat,
  • possibly a headache
  • fever, which can last for a couple of days.

Mother of the virus:

China the 3rd most powerful country in the world is considered as the one who brings the virus in world. The first case was reported in the Chinese city of wuhan on newyears eve. As virus first detected in china by Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologist at Wuhan Central Hospital.

In mid-December, an outbreak of a novel coronavirus was traced to workers and customers of the city's Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, which contained exotic and wild animal species. On Dec. 26, reports are released that The sickness was caused by a new coronavirus that was 87 percent similar to SARS, or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. On Dec. 31, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission falsely stated that there was no human-to-human transmission of the disease, which it described as a seasonal flu that was preventable and controllable.

On Feb. 1, the New York Times reported that:
the government's initial handling of the epidemic allowed the virus to gain a tenacious hold. At critical moments, officials chose to put secrecy and order ahead of openly confronting the growing crisis to avoid public alarm and political embarrassment.

Importantly, China failed to expeditiously share information with the World Health Organization (WHO) on the novel coronavirus. For example, China waited until Feb. 14, nearly two months into the crisis, before it disclosed that 1,700 healthcare workers were infected. Such information on the vulnerability of medical workers is essential to understanding transmission patterns and to devise strategies to contain the virus. The experts at WHO were stymied by Chinese officials for data on hospital transmissions. China's failure to provide open and transparent information to WHO is more than a moral breakdown. It is also the breach of a legal duty that China owed to other states under international law, and for which injured states - now numbering some 150 nations - may seek a legal remedy.

It became the habbit of china to hide the information such a human killer viruses as China every time repeats its obstruction of information that worsened the SARS crisis 18 years earlier. In that case, China tried to cover up the SARS epidemic, which led WHO member states to adopt the new International Health Regulations in 2005.[2] In both cases, China and the world would have been spared thousands of unnecessary deaths as China acted forthrightly and in accordance with its legal obligations. And does same in the case of coronavirus also by hiding the information and let the virus spread in the whole world. Carelessness of china becames the horrible condition of the mankind.

this behavior clearly shows the carelessness of the Chinese government towards the virus . besides of knowing that how dangerous is the virus china act negligently; and result of this negligence are being faced by all the countries.

Not only the health are affected by this virus; the economy is also facing the irregularities as it is obvious that economy of any country is standing on the shoulder of their manpower and when the men power is affected by such a pandemic how the economy can survive . Also in the case of covid-19 this virus is became a great monster for the human civilization as it is a hungry monster for human lives. This outbreak of covid-19 is a sudden shock to all the countries because it comes unanimously no one have the idea about this pandemic.

Effects on another countries:
could you even imagine the pain of the daughter whose father died and she cant go to say last good bye to her father because of the lockdown. This is sad.

Not only the china is suffering from the virus ; whole world are being trapped by this virus.

Italy, Spain, America, India etc. are the countries suffered by the virus. These countries are the evidences of the loss suffered due to the Coronavirus. Almost all the countries among the world are facing a big threat to their life's and economy.

As no medicine is available to fight with novel Coronavirus.
  • In America total 7,72,665 people are the confirm cases of covid-19 and 41155 are became deceased as 0n 20-04-2020
  • In Spain total 2,00,210 people are the confirm cases of covid-19 and 21000 became deceased as on 20-04-2020.
  • In Italy total 1,81,228 people are the confirm cases and 24114 are deceased as on 20-04-2020.
  • In Germany total 1,46,286 people are confirm cases and 4767 are deceased as on 20-04-2020.
  • In India total 18985 people are confirm cases and 603 are deceased as on 20-04-2020.

All the peoples of different- different countries are locked down in their homes to break the chain of covid-19 . As it is the only solution to stopped the spread of the covid-19 hence government of affected country from covid-19 puts the lockdown on their people and on the economy.

Time limits of lockdown differ from country to country:
  • As in India till now lockdown id divided into two phases that is in first phase lockdown limit is - 21 days { 24 march to 14 april} and on second phase - 19 days {15 april to 3 may }.
  • America announces 15 days lockdown as to stop spread of coronavirus.
  • Italy announces 1month and 12 days lockdown lockdown started from {9march to 3may} Covid-19 treats all same irrespective of their status and catse as -
  • France prime minister wife Sophie Gregoire Trudeau has tested positive for the novel corona virus.
  • Prime minister of Britain Boris Johnson is also test positive for covid-19 and still in the isolation.
  • France's culture minister, Franck Riester, has tested positive with the COVID-19 illness, a colleague confirmed Tuesday. Five cases had already been confirmed in France's lower house National Assembly, which Riester visited last week.

Especially in Italy, America, spain and france have more than worse condition. In Italy government leaves essential commodity on the roads and the one who wants can came and take it.
In America more than 1000 people dies every day due to coronavirus.

As covid-19 is a respiratory syndrome and it spreads through human to human and there is shortage of ventilators in every country and it is obvious no country can make ventilator equal to its population.

Impact on trade and economy:

As this virus is considered as a pandemic that means worldwide spread of the new diseases. Most of the economies around the world are shuttered down as to stopped the chain of spreading of the novel coronavirus. As these virus is being transmitted from one person to another by come in contact to each other. So in a situation of this it is became important to shut down the economies till the virus became in the situation of under control.

Impact on trade:

Trade means buying and selling of goods and services. it includes movement of good and services from one place to other.

following points describe the condition of trade during the pandemic covid-19:

  • A great downfall - trade are coping with lost revenue and disrupted supply chains as all the factories, business, shops, manufacturing industries are shut down due to quarantine measures spread across the globe, restricting movement and commerce.
     
  • unemployment - unemployment is the big result the world faces due to covid-19 . As many factories and businesses are became insolvent and the works belong them are unemployed. The situation became very worse that people will die in depression of unemployment. UK unemployment could to rise by 2.1 million, to 3.4 million, by the end of June.

  • Again a start up - covid-19 a pandemic became a reason for again a new startup for many businesses especially small scale business. As it brings people in the situation from where they started.

Impact on economy:

  • A great recession period: covid-19 causes a great recession in world economy as all economy is shut down to follow the quarantine days. all the trade related areas are shut down not even a single sector is open in the affected areas of the covid-19. Economy is run by the trade and services in the country and when the trade are shut down it will automatically causes recession in the economy.
     
  • Deglobalisation: the COVID-19 emergency is hastening deglobalisation at least in the short term. As not only the state borders are shut down but also the borders of different different countries are closed to whole world to prevent the widespread of novel coronavirus.
     
  • Employment crisis: covid-19 will cause a great downfall in the economy as a result economy is not being able to provide employment opportunities as it was further. As a result many people became unemployed in all over the world and this causes the situation of starvation.
     
  • Loss to airlines: covid-19 causes a great loss to airline businesses as all the flights whether national or international are stopped till the covid-19 comes to under control. the International Air Transport Association (IATA) predictied the COVID-19 outbreak could cost airlines $113 billion in lost revenue as flights are stopped . On March 16, British Airways said it would cut flying capacity by at least 75% in April and May.
     
  • Loss to travel and tourism industries: tourism is the best source of income for any economy as it attracts the foreign income and also gives employment to many people in the country. And due to novel coronavirus there a great damage to travel and tourism in the global economy. As people are lockdown on there homes for break the chain of novel coronavirus so its obvious that travel and tourism will effect.

Situation at global level:
Empty streets have became new normal during the covid-19 pandemic . stores are shut down, public gatherings banned travel restriction and physical distancing imposed as a third of the world practices the formula of lockdown to slow down the spread of covid-19 and all of these is having impact on our global economy. Industries like airlines, export import co., tourism, retailers, restaurants and many other non essential services have been hit some harder than others.

The UN has faces 2trillion short fall in a global income and 220 billion dollar hit to developing countries because of covid-19 .we never seen a seen like these we have huge portion of economy and people under lockdown and that will have a huge impact on work and economy.

There are many industries which are getting profit in this situation:
  • Video conferencing industries
  • Internet providing industries
  • Medical businesses
  • Online fitness classes
  • e- learning
  • telecommunication apps.
  • Entertainment apps

But there are industries also which are getting huge losses:
  • Tourism industry
  • Air line industry
  • Spas
  • movie theater
  • hair saloons etc.

Early estimates suggest that global economy this year contracted by 1%. The last time global economy contracted was in 2008 -2009 global recession by similar magnitude. So this is the similar magnitude recession which a global economy faces in 2008-2009. Such a recession on a level of global economy is very rare to came because the countries like china and India upgrade the GDP.

So if the situation like this comes that shows a big trouble on the world economies . as such a recession is not a good track for the worlds development. And if this came this is the matter of great dealings to overcome world from this situation.

Situation in India after lockdown:
After the lockdown comes to an end the Indian economy can be gone under one of the three aspects:
  1. First: v shape graph that means victory ; victory for me,victory for you and victory for our nation. That means due to to this lockdown market will came down but suddenly start moving upwards.
  2. Second : u shape that means market will down and become low for sometime and then after sometime start growing. The speed in u shape is slower that v shape.
  3. Third: L shape that means the market come down and remains down. This situation is the worst situation for any economy.
Not only the Indian economy every economy in the world can be categorized after the completion of lockdown in the above stated categories.

Measures announces by RBI to deal with economy fallout by covid-19:

  • The guidelines were issued with the two-fold aim of ensuring capital buffer for difficult times and restricting banks from indiscriminate lending during the periods of excess credit growth.
  • The central bank has also decided to increase the limit of advances it gives to states and UTs by 30 per cent under the Ways and Means (WMA).
     
  • RBI said that in view of the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the time period for realisation and repatriation of export proceeds for exports made up to or on July 31, 2020, has been extended to 15 months from the date of export.
     
  • For banks, RBI has decided to put on hold the activation of the framework on countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) for a period of one year or earlier.
     
  • the RBI had announced hosts of measures, including sharp reduction in key lending rate and moratorium on re-payment of term loans as the coronavirus outbreak has triggered global slowdown in economic activities.
     
  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today allowed all financial institutions to allow a three-month moratorium for all term loans in light of the COVID-19 outbreak and the subsequent lockdown.
     
  • In effect, banks can allow all customers to not pay their monthly EMIs for a 3-month period, and the non-repayment will not hurt their credit score.

Conclusion:
The Director general of WHO in meeting stated that more worst has yet to come. This statement clearly shows that the world still has to suffer a lot this is not even a trailer. The sudden outbreak of covid-19 changes the whole life style of the people. Sometimes still it looks like a night mare that I will woke up at the next morning and everything will be normal. But it is a harsh realty difficult to accept. No words can explain the pain of the people behind this lockdown.

This lockdown not only is effecting the economy and trade but also affects people life very badly. As this takes away children childhood, college students college life and many dreams. Each and every thing is being disturbed by this covid-19 whether it is trade, economy, education, dreams everything . no one ever imagine that this bad could happen to human life. Life Is no more a life it becomes a slaved in the four walls .

besides life there a big threat to the economy also as shutting down of the economy from months is not a good thing for any country ; Its downfall is decided., after lockdown it became difficult for every country to stand up and again gain that position:
after the end of this novel coronavirus the five things can be possible to the global economy:
  1. market progress - that means sudden boom in the market it is possible if the people of the country spends money rather to save them in their pocket.
  2. stagnation - same as it was before coronavirus.
  3. recession - it can cause unemployment,shutting down of businesses
  4. depression - means total shutting down of business .
  5. deep depression - it means the worst time.
As because of this covid-19 trade and economy has faces many irregularities which causes a big loss to economy . after the lockdown gets over the government and the people of the country face to face lots of challenges as shutting down of economy for months and months causes great losses .

What measures can government take:

  1. universal basic income - government should give money to poor people through direct bank transfer.
  2. grants and loans will help small business -interest free loan to small business.
  3. wave off the electricity bill for commerce businesses - this wave off can help the to save the working capital.
  4. Multiply the involvement of private sectors for speed and scale -as private sectors have more speed, scale, manpower etc.
  5. Partner with religious institution for food operations - organize events with religious institution to feed poor people.
  6. Corona crisis will gave birth to water crisis - As according to Niti ayog in 2021many urban areas of the country faces water crisis. So, water have to save.
At last I will I like to conclude that all of the world is facing a hell like situation but we can overcome this by follow government instructions and we have to deal this situation with patients and unity. together we all can do and overcome from coronavirus by following the method of stay ho me stay safe.

End-Notes:
  1. The Indian express,{available at https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/pandemic-explained-who-novel-coronavirus-covid19-what-is-a-pandemic-6309727/} (visited on 18th april,2020).
  2. commentary by - james karaska {available at https://warontherocks.com/2020/03/china-is-legally-responsible-for-covid-19-damage-and-claims-could-be-in-the-trillions/} (last visited on 18th april 2020)

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