Introduction
The Middle East remains one of the most complex geopolitical regions in the world. From the Abraham Accords to the ongoing debates about the Palestinian future, questions of governance, identity, and stability dominate the discourse. At the heart of these issues lies a fundamental distinction: why do some Arab states thrive while others collapse into chaos? The answer, surprisingly, may not lie in oil wealth or Western influence, but in the enduring power of clans.
Saudi Arabia and Partial Normalization
Saudi Arabia has already taken steps toward normalization with Israel, even if not formally recognized. Since the signing of the Abraham Accords, Riyadh has permitted Israeli aircraft to fly over its territory en route to the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. This act, while seemingly technical, represents a significant shift in regional dynamics. It signals that normalization is not a binary concept but a spectrum—Saudi Arabia is already partially engaged, even if full diplomatic ties remain elusive.
The Palestinian Question: Gaza vs. West Bank
The future of Palestine must be considered through two distinct lenses: Gaza and the West Bank (Judea and Samaria).
Gaza
- The recent war has shattered many of its clans, weakening the social fabric that could support a stable governance model.
West Bank
- In contrast, the Arab population remains deeply tribal, offering a potential pathway to governance modeled on successful clan-based states in the Gulf.
This divergence suggests that a one-size-fits-all solution is unrealistic. Any plan must account for the unique social structures of each territory.
Two Kinds of Arab States
The Arab world can be divided into two categories:
Failing States
- Lebanon
- Syria
- Iraq
- Yemen
- Sudan
- Libya
Despite abundant resources, these states are plagued by sectarian conflict, ethnic fragmentation, and weak governance.
Successful States
- Kuwait
- Qatar
- UAE
- Oman
- Saudi Arabia
These states enjoy stability, prosperity, and international influence.
The contrast raises a critical question: why do some states fail while others succeed?
Oil Is Not the Answer
It is tempting to attribute success to oil wealth, but this explanation falls short. Iraq and Libya, both rich in oil, remain unstable and violent. Meanwhile, Dubai—whose economy is only marginally dependent on oil—has become a global hub of commerce and tourism. Clearly, oil alone does not determine success.
The Role of Clans
The true dividing line lies in social organization.
Failing states are conglomerates of ethnic, tribal, religious, and sectarian groups. Their diversity, while culturally rich, creates political fragmentation. To maintain control, these states often resort to dictatorship, which only deepens instability.
Successful states are built on homogeneous clan structures. Each Gulf monarchy is ruled by a dominant family:
| State | Ruling Clan |
|---|---|
| Kuwait | Al Sabah |
| Qatar | Al Thani |
| Dubai | Al Maktoum |
| Abu Dhabi | Al Nahyan |
| Saudi Arabia | Al Saud |
This clan-based governance ensures unity, continuity, and legitimacy. Leaders are not imposed by colonial powers but emerge from traditional authority that predates modern statehood.
Modernization Without Westernization
The Gulf states demonstrate that modernization does not require adopting Western political values. They have embraced technology, infrastructure, and global commerce while retaining traditional clan-based rule. The metaphor is striking: yesterday’s camel riders are today’s Lamborghini drivers, yet the underlying system of governance remains unchanged. This continuity is precisely what makes these states resilient.
Conclusion
The Middle East’s future cannot be understood through oil revenues or imported ideologies. Stability arises from social cohesion, and in this region, cohesion is rooted in clans. As Saudi Arabia edges toward normalization and the Palestinian territories grapple with divergent realities, policymakers must recognize that clan-based governance is not a relic of the past—it is the foundation of success in the present. “`
