From South Asia to West Asia: A Region in Turmoil
From South Asia to West Asia, the last few years have witnessed waves of public anger against authoritarian rule. Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan—each has seen citizens pour onto the streets, demanding dignity, accountability, and a future they can survive in. Today, that same fire is burning fiercely in Iran.
Not a Sudden Outburst, but Years in the Making
This is not a sudden outburst. Nor is it a protest manufactured overnight. What is unfolding in Iran is the result of years—decades—of accumulated frustration, economic suffocation, political repression, and a deep sense of betrayal felt by ordinary people toward those who rule in the name of religion.
A Revolt Against Fear and Hunger
Across Iran, people have stepped out of their homes and workplaces, no longer willing to tolerate what they describe as a suffocating dictatorship led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The response of the state has been swift and brutal: mass arrests, arson, live ammunition, and near-total internet shutdowns.
- Mass arrests of protesters
- Use of live ammunition
- Arson and destruction
- Near-total internet shutdowns
Human rights groups estimate that more than 500 protesters have already lost their lives, a number that may well be higher given Iran’s tight control over information. The government, meanwhile, claims that over 100 security personnel have also been killed. Even if one accepts the state’s version partially, the scale of violence points to a level of chaos Iran has not seen in years.
The Spark Came from the Markets, Not the Campuses
What makes this uprising different from earlier protests is where it began. This movement did not start in universities, nor did it erupt over cultural restrictions like the hijab. Instead, it began in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar—the economic heart of the country.
Shopkeepers pulled down their shutters in protest. Within hours, strikes spread across markets in major cities and soon reached small towns and interior regions. This is no longer an urban, elite, or youth-led agitation. It has become a nationwide economic revolt, cutting across class, age, and geography.
History adds weight to this symbolism. The 1979 Iranian Revolution that toppled the Shah also began in Tehran’s markets. When bazaars shut down, the regime listens—because markets connect every Iranian, rich or poor, conservative or liberal.
Why the Bazaars Matter
| Aspect | Significance |
|---|---|
| Place of Origin | Tehran’s Grand Bazaar |
| Historical Parallel | 1979 Iranian Revolution |
| Social Reach | Connects rich and poor, conservative and liberal |
An Economy Pushed to the Brink
At the core of this uprising lies economic despair. Iran has been grappling with punishing sanctions, policy failures, and regional conflicts for years. Inflation has hovered between 40% and 70%. The Iranian rial has collapsed dramatically—at one point plunging to around 1.4 million rials per US dollar.
- High inflation between 40% and 70%
- Severe currency collapse
- Sanctions and policy failures
- Impact of prolonged regional conflicts
People are not protesting abstract political ideals anymore. They are protesting hunger, joblessness, and the daily humiliation of being unable to provide for their families. When survival itself becomes the issue, governments lose the ability to pacify citizens with token concessions. An announced allowance of roughly $7 per month for the poor only added insult to injury.
Economic protests are notoriously difficult to suppress because fear loses its power when people have nothing left to lose.
The Regime’s Old Playbook: Blame Foreign Hands
As the protests grew, the Iranian regime reverted to a familiar authoritarian script—branding protesters as “rioters,” “traitors,” and agents of foreign powers. The state accused its own citizens of working for the US, Israel, or shadowy international conspiracies.
This tactic has been used repeatedly by authoritarian governments worldwide. It was used in Bangladesh, in Venezuela, and across the Middle East. But history shows that discrediting protesters often backfires, intensifying public anger rather than silencing it.
The crackdown intensified: internet services were shut down, including attempts to block satellite-based connections like Starlink. Yet videos of burning streets, injured civilians, and hospitals overflowing with the wounded still made their way out. In the digital age, shutting down the internet no longer guarantees silence.
Why This Moment Feels Different
Iran has crushed major uprisings before—the student protests of 1999, the Green Movement in 2009, fuel price protests in 2019, and the Women, Life, Freedom movement of 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini. Each time, brute force prevailed.
So why does this moment feel different?
- The protests are rooted in economic collapse, not just political or social grievances.
- They originate from markets—the backbone of Iran’s internal economy.
- The regime itself appears weakened.
Iran’s regional influence has suffered setbacks: Hezbollah and Hamas have been weakened, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad has fallen, and recent conflicts with Israel exposed vulnerabilities despite Iran’s missile capabilities.
Prestige matters to authoritarian systems. When the aura of invincibility cracks, people find courage.
Enter the Global Powers
As Iran burns internally, external players are watching closely. Israel has openly expressed sympathy for Iranian protesters, with its leadership even addressing Iranians in Persian. The United States, under Donald Trump, has openly discussed military options, including targeted strikes.
But Iran is not Venezuela. There is no unified, openly pro-US opposition waiting in the wings. Many Iranians despise the clerical regime—but they also harbor deep mistrust of American intentions.
That mistrust is not unfounded.
The Ghost of 1953 Still Haunts Iran
In 1953, the US and Britain orchestrated Operation Ajax, overthrowing Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh after he moved to nationalize Iran’s oil. The Shah was restored, and for decades Iran’s resources and politics remained under foreign influence.
That intervention sowed the seeds for the 1979 revolution—and for the rise of the very theocracy that now rules Iran. In trying to escape one form of domination, Iranians fell into another.
Today, history threatens to repeat itself. A US military intervention could weaken Khamenei, but it could also replace one form of authoritarianism with another—where external powers control Iran’s destiny.
Two Villains, One Battlefield
For many Iranians, this crisis has two villains.
- One is the domestic dictatorship that has crushed freedoms, ruined the economy, and ruled through fear.
- The other is foreign interference that has repeatedly sabotaged Iran’s chances at genuine democracy.
The danger is clear: once a third player enters the struggle, popular movements often lose control of their own destiny—as seen in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Venezuela.
An Uncertain Future
Some protesters have even begun chanting pro-monarchy slogans, prompting Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah, to speak of returning. Whether this reflects desperation, nostalgia, or strategic signaling remains unclear.
What is clear is that Iran stands at its most critical juncture in decades. Never before has the regime faced such widespread, economically driven resistance combined with international pressure and internal weakness.
The Road Ahead
The road ahead is dangerous.
- Crackdowns will intensify.
- Arrests will rise.
- Blood may still be spilled.
Yet one truth cannot be erased: millions of Iranians have broken the wall of fear. And once that wall falls, history rarely turns back easily.
Why the World Must Watch
The world must watch carefully—not to exploit Iran’s pain, but to understand it. Because the future of Iran will not only shape its own destiny, it will reshape the geopolitics of the entire Middle East.
