People in England and Wales are getting more worried about how well the police are doing their job. There’s been a big drop in the number of crimes that get solved, meaning the person who did it gets caught and punished. Even though the exact numbers aren’t clear, the overall picture is clear: fewer crimes are being solved than they used to be, which means a lot of people who commit crimes are not being held accountable, resulting in a big decrease in the number of cases where justice is served.
The Declining Solve Rate
Figures released by the Home Office reveal a sharp decline in the proportion of offences that lead to a charge or summons – a metric often used to gauge how many crimes are “solved.” In the year ending March 2015, roughly 15‑16 % of reported crimes resulted in such an outcome. By the year ending March 2023, that share had fallen to just 5.7 %. While the most recent data show a modest rebound in a few offence categories, the overall rate of positive investigative results remains depressingly low.
According to an analysis by the Institute for Government, only about 13 % of crimes recorded in the year ending March 2025 culminated in a charge or any other favourable investigative conclusion. This occurs even though the volume of police‑recorded crimes (excluding fraud) has largely levelled off or dropped slightly in certain periods, hovering around 5.4 million offences in recent years.
The shrinking solve‑rate translates into a dramatic reduction in absolute numbers of cases closed. Improved recording practices have caused the total number of reported crimes to rise—from roughly 3.5‑4 million in the mid‑2010s to over 5 million in some recent years—yet the proportion that is solved has been cut roughly in half or more. The net effect is that far fewer crimes are being resolved today than a decade ago, potentially leaving hundreds of thousands more cases unsolved and feeding public frustration and the sense that offenders are getting away with it.
Why the Drop?
Several factors contribute to this trend
- Shift to Complex Crimes: Modern crime has evolved. Traditional volume crimes like burglary and vehicle theft have decreased significantly (neighbourhood crimes down over 50% since 2010, per government claims), but offences like sexual crimes, domestic abuse, fraud, and cybercrime have surged. These are harder to investigate, often requiring digital forensics, victim support, and handling vast data from phones or computers.
- Resource Strains: Austerity-era cuts reduced officer numbers by around 20,000 between 2010 and 2019. Although the government recruited 20,000 additional officers by 2023, many are inexperienced, and retention issues persist. Police also handle increasing non-crime demands, such as mental health calls.
- Victim Withdrawal: A large proportion of cases – around 40-50% for violence against the person – are closed because victims do not support further action, often due to evidential difficulties or personal reasons.
- Recording Changes: Improved crime recording since 2014 has increased the volume of reported offences, diluting solve rates as more challenging cases enter the system.
- Specific low-solve categories include theft (often under 10%), sexual offences (around 3-4%), and burglary (5-9% for residential).
Public and Political Impact
Public confidence is fading because many crimes go unsolved, leaving victims of robbery, theft, or violence feeling ignored. Over 90% of certain offenses remain without resolution in recent years, a problem critics like the Labour Party once called a “national crisis.” Now in power, the government plans to boost local policing, hire more detectives, and raise investigation quality, including efforts like Operation Soteria to improve rape case handling. However, crime trends remain concerning, with fraud, cybercrime, and overall crime rates rising since the pandemic.
A Call for Reform
Although crime rates in England and Wales have dropped to record lows, with a significant 75% decrease since their peak in 1995, the inability to hold offenders accountable erodes trust and discourages potential criminals. To effectively combat crime, it’s essential to allocate resources towards cutting-edge technology, specialized training, and prioritizing cases that have a high likelihood of being solved. If substantial reforms are not implemented, the existing disparity of approximately 600,000 unresolved crimes compared to ten years ago will continue to grow, ultimately leaving communities exposed and denying many individuals the justice they deserve.
